Browsing by Author "Jayarathna, H.L.D.K."

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    Determination of Influential Factors to Predict Household Income and Feasible Loan Amount in Badulla District, Sri Lanka
    (Uva Wellassa University of Sri Lanka, 2019) Jayarathna, H.L.D.K.; Kumari, K.W.S.N.
    As a result of economic decline and expectation of high standard living conditions, majority of Sri Lankans are struggling to fulfil costs of their basic needs. Stability of income and expenditure can be recognized as a good solution for this problem. The study attempts to investigate determinants which are influencing to income and financial assistantship (loan). At the first stage of the study, impact of costs for basic needs is investigated. The analysis required multi-cultural respondents for a successful survey study. Badulla was perfect with given pre requirement since it covers variety of living conditions in a limited extent. A multi-stage random sampling technique was used to select 500 household heads from six divisional secretariats. The selected divisional secretariats are Badulla, Passara, Uva-Paranagama, Haldummulla, Soranathota and Meegahakivula. Primary data was collected through interview with the use of semi structured questionnaire. Data analysis was accomplished using descriptive statistics, confidence interval, one-way ANOVA and multiple regressions. Results of one-way ANOVA imply that living area can effect on costs for basic needs. Multiple regression analysis showed that total income can be predicted by cost for foods, transport and clothing (p-value<0.05) with 70.9% model accuracy. Moreover, feasible loan amount can be predicted using cost for electricity, water, education, health and social activities (pvalue<0.05) with 87.0% accuracy. These five significant factors can be recognized as major reasons to expect a financial assistantship. Result implies that no existing common determinant which explains both income and loan amount. The government administrative and financial sector can get the benefit of this study.
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    Time Series Analysis for Modelling and Forecasting Tourist Arrivals in Sri Lanka
    (Uva Wellassa University of Sri Lanka, 2019) Gammanpila, H.D.; Jayarathna, H.L.D.K.
    For centuries, Sri Lanka has been a popular place for foreign travelers. Tourism and Hospitality industry is one of major source of income in Sri Lanka which directly contribute to Country’s economy. Therefore, understanding and forecasting the upcoming trends of tourist’s arrivals is really important and it will be beneficial and important for stakeholders and interesting parties of the country. The purpose of this research study is to investigate and forecast the tourist’s arrival in Sri Lanka using time series modelling based on past available data from January 1995 to January 2018. The data has been analyzed based on the two sets: pre-war (1995-2010) and post-war (2010-2018) due to major variations in the Tourism and Hospitality industry after the civil war in 2009 in Sri Lanka. In this study Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method and Multiplicative Decomposition Approach (MDA), are proposed for forecasting. When the forecasts from these models were validated, post-war data has more accurate results having low mean absolute percentage error for MDA than ARIMA approach. Furthermore, Comparison between predicted and actual data also confirmed that the MDA model from post-war data represent high predictive ability.